نعم ولا للتعديلات الدستورية

ما هي سيناريوهات ما بعد الإستفتاء علي التعديلات الدستورية


اذا وافق الشعب علي نصوص التعديلات فإن الحملات الانتخابية ستبدأ فورا و اذا رفضها فإن الحوار سيبدأ حول الجمعية التأسيسية التي ستتولي كتابة الدستور الجديد




الموافقة تعني الاستعداد للانتخابات والرفض يعني إعلان دستوري مؤقت

حتي الآن هناك سيناريوهان معروفان للتعديلات الدستورية المقبلة، اما رفض التعديلات من قبل المواطنين او الموافقة عليها لتصبح سارية، و لكن السؤال الذي يجب ان يكون مطروحا الا هو السؤال الطبيعي الذي يقرأ ما بعد هذه التعديلات ، سواء تمت الموافقة عليها او رفضها المصريون ، في حالة سيناريو الموافقة - وحسب فقهاء القانون - سيكون الامر قد انتهي الي استمرار دستور عام 71 ليحكم خلال المرحلة الانتقالية و سيتحول الجدل الدائر حول الموافقة علي رفض التعديلات او قبولها الي جدل آخر لا يقل اهمية و هو اي الانتخابات سيكون اولا "الانتخابات الرئاسية ام الانتخابات البرلمانية"و ستبدأ القوي السياسية في التجهيز للمعركتين معا و ستطرح كل قوة سياسية مرشحها للرئاسة و تعلن عن برنامجه و في ذات الوقت ستكون هذه القوي قد بدأت في التجهيز "لقوائم مجمعة " تخوض بها الانتخابات البرلمانية و هي الفكرة التي ستظهر اكثر في حالة الدكتور محمد البرادعي الذي طرح فكرة خوض القوي الوطنية للانتخابات بقوائم موحدة كضمانة تحول دون محاولات بعض قوي الثورة المضادة الانقضاض علي مكاسبها او ركوب موجتها ، علي ان حالة الموافقة علي التعديلات ستبرز اكثر من مرشح للرئاسة اعلن بعضهم بالفعل نيته الترشح لموقع رئيس الجمهورية مثل البرادعي و عمرو موسي و حمدين صباحي و ايمن نور و هشام البسطاويسي .


اذا فإن حالة الموافقة علي التعديلات ستنقل مصر الي مرحلة اخري من مراحل الثورة لا تقل اهمية و لا خطورة - و ربما تفوق - عن المرحلة الماضية التي استطاعت ثورة المصريين ان تهدم اركان النظام القديم لتبدأ مرحلة بناء نظام جديد .

السيناريو الثاني هو سيناريو رفض التعديلات الدستورية من قبل المواطنين و هنا - و حسب عدد من قيادات حكومة الدكتور عصام شرف - فإن المجلس الاعلي للقوات المسلحة سيتجه الي وضع اعلان دستوري مؤقت يتم الاستناد اليه في الحكم حتي وضع دستور جديد للبلاد ، و عندها سيبدأ الجدل حول الجمعية التأسيسية المنتخبة التي ستضع هذا الدستور و كيفية تشكيلها و عدد اعضائها و الشروط التي يجب ان تتوافر فيهم و ما اذا كان هناك اشتراط بأن يتم تمثيل فئات معينة بنسب محددة كأن يتم اشتراط تمثيل " القانونيين " بنسبة 25 % مثلا باعتبار انهم الاكثر وعيا و دراية بالقواعد القانونية و الدستورية ، علي ان سيناريو الرفض سيعني ان الجدل سيطول بعد انتهاء الجمعية التأسيسية من وضع الدستور، اذ ستكون عملية كتابة الدستور هي العملية الاسهل و لكن العملية الاصعب بكل تأكيد ستكون في التوافق حول نصوص الدستور الجديد الذي لابد ان يعبر عن توافق مجتمعي واسع و يحترم وجهات نظر المجتمع بأحزابه و قواه الوطنية و فئاته و شرائحه المختلفة ، بعدها يمكن ان تتم الانتخابات الرئاسية و البرلمانية علي اساس هذا الدستور الجديد كأول دستور حقيقي تضعه ارادة الجماهير في مصر دون التدخل من الحاكم .

و لكن كل هذه الافتراضات تشترط ان يتم التسليم - سواء من قبل المعارضين او المؤيدين للتعديلات - علي ان هناك قواعد ديمقراطية جديدة تحكم مصر ، و الا يكون هناك رأي و لا حكم و لا محاولات لفرض ارادة بعد ان نطقت ارادة الجماهير بالقول الفصل في الاستفتاء سواء بالرفض او بالقبول و ان يصبح ميدان التحرير رمزا للثورة و ليس مكانا لفرض ارادة فئة او فصيل او جماعة او حزب سياسي

رحلة مكة فبراير 2011 الحمد لله

It's very important that we read, and understand

How Far Will the Youth Revolution Spread?
by Justice Litle, Editorial Director, Taipan Publishing Group
Ike's Domino Theory is in full swing now. From a Tunisian handcart vendor to Tahrir Square in Egypt, and now to Iran, Libya, Yemen and Bahrain, Middle East revolution is spreading.
It seemed to begin with an out-of-the-blue event... a single domino unexpectedly falling. On Dec. 17, a broken and frustrated youth named Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire in the Tunisian town of Sidi Bouzid. All of Tunisia then rallied in anger.
There is natural comparison here to Gavrilo Princip, the Yugoslav nationalist who assassinated an archduke and touched off World War I. That opportunity came about because of a driver mix-up.
If Franz Ferdinand and his wife had not made a fateful wrong turn that day, would Europe have still marched to war? If Mohamed Bouazizi had not despaired of all hope for the future, would multiple "strong men" still have been toppled?
The picture cannot be confined to a one-off event. In order for revolution or war to occur, surrounding conditions have to be just so. One could compare a dangerous situation to an extremely dry forest, crackling with dead underbrush after a long period of drought. With conditions like that, a single cigarette butt or errant campfire spark can fuel an inferno.
In the Middle East, the dry tinder of resentment had been building up for a very long time. Now it is fed by the flames of angry youth. In many Middle Eastern countries youth under 30, and in some cases under 20, make up the majority of the population. Many of these are restless, angry and unemployed.
And then there is the "social" aspect to the revolution. The gatherings in Tunisia and Egypt were more professionally managed than ever before. Tools like Facebook and Twitter were used to organize gatherings and share valuable hints and tips, such as the best way to counter tear gas. (Put vinegar or onion under your scarf.)
When President Mubarak stalled before fleeing the country, many believed the main goal was buying time to move assets to safety. Western intelligence services now seem to confirm this. Estimates of the Mubarak fortune, accumulated over decades of iron-fisted rule, range from $3 billion to a whopping $40 billion.
With Mubarak out there is talk of freezing these assets, particularly in Swiss and U.K. accounts, as the rightful property of Egypt. There is also talk of trying Mubarak for corruption, with some Egyptians arguing he should be executed a la Saddam Hussein. No wonder the man looked pale in his televised speech. He was thinking about his neck... and his gold.
For the most part Westerners cheer as they take in this grand sweep of history in the making. As old hands at democracy, we in the West are proud to see a new taste for freedom sweep away old regimes.

But there are grave parallels here too -- comparisons that should deeply concern the West. After all, it is not just the Middle East that is populated by angry, disaffected youth. Nor is it just the Middle East dealing with potential food shortages and a mounting cost of living for those who can least afford it. As Businessweek reports,
... [R]ich democracies ignore youth unemployment at their peril. In the 34 industrialized nations in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, at least 16.7 million young people are not employed, in school, or in training, and about 10 million of those aren't even looking, the OECD said in December 2010. In the most-developed nations, the job market has split between high-paying jobs that many workers aren't qualified for and low-paying jobs that they can't live on, says Harry J. Holzer, a public policy professor at Georgetown University and co-author of a new book, Where Are All the Good Jobs Going? Many of the jobs that once paid good wages to high school graduates have been automated or outsourced.
... Although the recession ended in the summer of 2009, youth unemployment remains near its cyclical peak. In the U.S., 18 percent of 16- to 24-year-olds were unemployed in December 2010, according to the Labor Dept., a year and a half after the recession technically ended. For blacks of the same age it was 27 percent. What keeps the numbers from being even higher is that many teens have simply given up. Some are sitting on couches. Others are in school, which can be a dead end itself. The percentage of American 16- to 19-year-olds who are employed has fallen to below 26 percent, a record low.
Meanwhile David Goldman, who writes as "Spengler" for the Asia Times, openly wonders what will happen to Egypt (and other Middle East countries) if China's wheat crop fails:
Not until June will we know the extent of the damage to China's winter wheat crop, virtually all its production. Extremely low rainfall this winter parched more than 5 million hectares of 14 million hectares planted, and the next few weeks' weather will determine if the world faces a real shortage of the staff of life.

Hoarding on the part of North African countries, starting with Algeria, has already pushed up the wheat price in the Mediterranean to a 20% premium over the price shown on the Chicago futures market. The immediate risk is that pre-emptive purchases of wheat will price the grain out of the reach of poor Egyptians, not to mention Pakistanis and Bengalis.

And if reserve-rich China, usually self-sufficient, goes into the world market to buy millions of tons of wheat, the price of wheat can rise to an arbitrarily high level.
The dictators are going, but for many of these countries the food may be going too -- priced out of the average consumer's hands. (Via Spengler, roughly 40 million Egyptians live on less than US$2 per day.) In Egypt and elsewhere, we can expect more anger ahead.
In the West, stomachs are not so empty. But at the same time, Westerners have a much lower threshold for acceptable hardships -- and young Western individuals, often with education but no solid employment prospects, can see the writing on the wall.
As it becomes more apparent that reflation-based monetary policies are hostile to those with limited discretionary income and those without jobs, the potential for youth unrest in the U.S. and Europe, not just the Middle East, will grow.

US NEWS (when we'll know??)

How Hosni Mubarak Got So Rich

..Rick Newman, On Friday February 11, 2011,

There are no Mubaraks on the Forbes list of the world's richest people, but there sure ought to be.
The mounting pressure from 18 days of historic protests finally drove Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak from office, after three decades as his nation's iron-fisted ruler. But over that time, Mubarak amassed a fortune that should finance a pretty comfortable retirement. The British Guardian newspaper cites Middle Eastern sources placing the wealth of Mubarak and his family at somewhere between $40 billion and $70 billion. That's a pretty good pension for government work. The world's richest man--Mexican business magnate Carlos Slim--is worth about $54 billion, by comparison. Bill Gates is close behind, with a net worth of about $53 billion.

Mubarak, of course, was a military man, not a businessman. But running a country with a suspended constitution for 30 years generates certain perks, and Mubarak was in a position to take a slice of virtually every significant business deal in the country, from development projects throughout the Nile basin to transit projects on the Suez Canal, which is a conduit for about 4 percent of the world's oil shipments. "There was no accountability, no need for transparency," says Prof. Amaney Jamal of Princeton University. "He was able to reach into the economic sphere and benefit from monopolies, bribery fees, red-tape fees, and nepotism. It was guaranteed profit."
Had the typical Egyptian enjoyed a morsel of that, Mubarak might still be in power. But Egypt, despite a cadre of well-educated young people, has struggled as an economic backwater. The nation's GDP per capita is just $6,200, according to the CIA--one-seventh what it is in the United States. That output ranks 136th in the world, even though Egypt ranks 16th in population. Mubarak had been working on a set of economic reforms, but they stalled during the global recession. The chronic lack of jobs and upward mobility was perhaps the biggest factor driving millions of enraged Egyptian youths into the streets, demanding change.

Estimates of Mubarak's wealth will probably be hard to verify, if not impossible (one reason dictators tend not to make it onto Forbes's annual list). His money is certainly not sitting in an Egyptian vault, waiting to be counted. And his delayed exit may have allowed Mubarak time to move money around and hide significant parts of his fortune. The Swiss government has said it is temporarily freezing any assets in Swiss banks that could be linked to Mubarak, an uncharacteristically aggressive move for the secretive banking nation. But that doesn't mean the money will ever be returned to the Egyptian people, and it may even find its way to Mubarak eventually. Other Mubarak funds are reportedly sitting in British banks, and Mubarak was no doubt wily enough to squire away some cash in unlikely places. Plus, an eventual exile deal could allow Mubarak to retain some of his wealth, no questions asked, as long as he and his family leave Egypt and make no further bids for power.
Epic skimming is a common privilege of Middle Eastern despots, and Mubarak and his two sons, Gamal and Alaa, were a bit less conspicuous than some of the Saudi princes and other Middle Eastern royals seen partying from time to time on the French Riviera or other hotspots. The family does reportedly own posh estates in London, New York, and Beverly Hills, plus a number of properties around the Egyptian resort town of Sharm El Sheikh, where Mubarak reportedly went after resigning the presidency.
Mubarak also spread the wealth far and wide in Egyptian power circles--another Middle Eastern tradition--one reason he incurred the kind of loyalty that allowed him to rule for a remarkable three decades. Top Army officials were almost certainly on his payroll, which might help explain why the Army eased him out in the end--allowing a kind of in-country exile--instead of hounding him out of Egypt or imprisoning him once it was clear the tide had turned against him for good.

That money trail, in fact, will help determine whether Egypt becomes a more prosperous, democratic country, or continues to muddle along as an economic basket case. Even though he's out of power, Mubarak may still be able to influence the Army officials running the country, through the financial connections that made them all wealthy. And if not Mubarak, the next leader may be poised to start lining his pockets the same way Mubarak did. For Egypt to have a more effective, transparent economy, all of that will have to be cleaned up. There are probably a lot of people in Cairo who have been checking their bank balances lately

ما أعظم كلمات الله

يَـٰٓأَيُّهَا ٱلنَّاسُ ضُرِبَ مَثَلٌۭ فَٱسْتَمِعُوا۟ لَهُۥٓ ۚ إِنَّ ٱلَّذِينَ تَدْعُونَ مِن دُونِ ٱللَّهِ لَن يَخْلُقُوا۟ ذُبَابًۭا وَلَوِ ٱجْتَمَعُوا۟ لَهُۥ ۖ وَإِن يَسْلُبْهُمُ ٱلذُّبَابُ شَيْـًۭٔا لَّا يَسْتَنقِذُوهُ مِنْهُ ۚ ضَعُفَ ٱلطَّالِبُ وَٱلْمَطْلُوبُ ﴿73﴾ مَا قَدَرُوا۟ ٱللَّهَ حَقَّ قَدْرِهِۦٓ ۗ إِنَّ ٱللَّهَ لَقَوِىٌّ عَزِيزٌ ﴿74﴾ ٱللَّهُ يَصْطَفِى مِنَ ٱلْمَلَـٰٓئِكَةِ رُسُلًۭا وَمِنَ ٱلنَّاسِ ۚ إِنَّ ٱللَّهَ سَمِيعٌۢ بَصِيرٌۭ ﴿75﴾ يَعْلَمُ مَا بَيْنَ أَيْدِيهِمْ وَمَا خَلْفَهُمْ ۗ وَإِلَى ٱللَّهِ تُرْجَعُ ٱلْأُمُورُ


(73) O people, an example is presented, so listen to it. Indeed, those you invoke besides Allah will never create [as much as] a fly, even if they gathered together for that purpose. And if the fly should steal away from them a [tiny] thing, they could not recover it from him. Weak are the pursuer and pursued.
(74) They have not appraised Allah with true appraisal. Indeed, Allah is Powerful and Exalted in Might.
(75) Allah chooses from the angels messengers and from the people. Indeed, Allah is Hearing and Seeing.
(76) He knows what is [presently] before them and what will be after them. And to Allah will be returned [all] matters.

بعض المدن الأمريكية تعاني نقص وهروب السكان

Unqouted
لمن لا يعرف هذه المدن الأمريكية السبعة كانت من أكبر المدن وأكثرها تجارة ورواجاً اين هي الآن
Let's see how the big cities become or became
Where is:
New orleans Hurricane Katrina !
Flint Mich the auto industry!
Clevelanda thriving manufacturing center!
Buffalo, N.Y. 13th largest city!
Dayton, Ohio Home for great fortune 500 companies!
Pittsburgh the forge for the American industrial engine!
Rochester, N.Y the booming trade centre!
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Quoted:
American Cities That Are Running Out Of People by Michael B. Sauter
Saturday, January 1, 2011


The population of the United States has increased steadily by roughly 2.5 million people every year since World War II. Throughout prosperity and hard times, Americans continue to have families. Many of the country's regions have expanded to accommodate this population increase. Some cities have grown faster than others as the result of being at the center of some important new technology or job market. Others have lost residents because of failing industries and migration. Nevertheless, some of these cities have continued to grow slowly, or at least remain relatively stagnant (not growing or developing), buoyed (to help a company, market, or economy to be more successful) by the rising tide of the national population.

There are some cities, however, that have experienced such severe hardship and decline that their populations have actually decreased significantly. New Orleans has lost more than a quarter of its population in the past 10 years as the result of Hurricane Katrina. The rest of the cities that have lost major parts of their population have seen their flagship industries, which include coal, steel, oil, and auto-related manufacturing, fall off or completely collapse. America moved away from its status as an industrial superpower in the second half of the 20th century as the services sector rose to replace it. Millions of U.S. manufacturing jobs have moved overseas. Cities such as Rochester, Cleveland and Buffalo declined in population because they were trade hubs, and new modes of transportation removed their geographical dominance. Cities like Flint, Mich., have economies based on a single major industry. In Flint's case, that industry is auto manufacturing. When that industry began to decline, Flint was unable to diversify to prevent a population exodus (a situation in which a lot of people leave a place or activity at the same time)All of the cities on this list experienced at least one of these devastating problems, which have caused tens of thousands -- and in some cases, hundreds of thousands -- of its residents to leave the region for other jobs and other homes. While it has been the primary focus of these cities to create new sources of employment for their residents, it may be years before people return, if they do at all.
[Home Prices Falling Faster in Biggest U.S. Cities]
Unfortunately, the populations of most of the cities on this list continue to decline and the situation could get worse for years. This loss of residents has caused severe drops in the social services that many of these cities can provide. Property and other taxes have fallen so much that the support that residents of other cities take for granted is at risk in the municipalities on this list. There is no longer any guarantee that they can maintain police and fire departments at reasonable levels. Some of these cities cannot continue to manage large neighborhoods that have become almost deserted as residents have left unoccupied homes behind. Home vacancy rates tell a great deal about how much a city's population has dropped.
24/7 obtained its population data from the U.S. Census Bureau's Population Division. Housing vacancy came from the Census Bureau's American Community Survey. This is a list of the seven American cities that have lost the most people in the past decade:

1. New Orleans
Population: 354,850
Population Change 2000-2009: -128,813
Population Percent Change 2000-2009: -26.63%
Home Vacancy: 21.5%
New Orleans is unique in that its presence on this list is not due to industrial decline, but from natural disaster. Hurricane Katrina flooded 80% of the city, caused by some estimates more than $80 billion in damage, and displaced tens of thousands of residents. The period of widespread homelessness, severe crime, and slow recovery has left the city as a shadow of its former self. While people are trickling (We let the sand trickle between our toes,if people or things trickle in or out, a few of them arrive or leave) back into the city, many will likely never return, and the city has lost more than a quarter of its population in just 10 years.

2. Flint, Mich.
Population: 111,475
Population Change 2000-2009: -13,266
Population Percent Change 2000-2009: -10.63%
Home Vacancy: 18%
While most of the cities on this list are here as the result of a general decline in industry, Flint's woes have come almost entirely from one sector -- the auto industry. Flint became a boomtown at the turn of the century as it became a divisional headquarters to the major American auto manufacturers, including Chevrolet, Buick, and General Motors. Between 1910 and 1930, the population had more than quadrupled due to the success of the American car business. Since the American auto industry began its decline in the 1980s, Flint has consistently lost at least 10% of its population each decade. Massive layoffs and plant closings have devastated the city, and unemployment rates remain well into the double digits.

3. Cleveland
Population: 431,369
Population Change 2000-2009: -45,205
Population Percent Change 2000-2009: -9.49%
Home Vacancy: 17.5%
Cleveland, the largest city on our list, was once a thriving manufacturing center, as well as an important point of trade because of its connection to several key routes, particularly Lake Erie. The city was once home to a sizable auto industry. Most of the largest companies that were once based in Cleveland no longer exist. These include Peerless, People's and Winton. Cleveland also served as headquarters for John D. Rockefeller's Standard Oil Company, as well as a key import location for coal and iron shipped from the South and Midwest. The decline of industrial American has hit the city particularly hard, and poverty, a default on municipal debt in the '70s, and pollution have earned the city the nickname "the mistake on the lake." In 1948, the city had over 910,000 people; it now has less than half of that.

4. Buffalo, N.Y.
Population: 270,240
Population Change 2000-2009: -21,970
Population Percent Change 2000-2009: -7.52%
Home Vacancy: 17.2%
Another victim of the Erie Canal boom and bust, Buffalo was the 13th largest city in the country just before WW II. It is now the 70th. Like Rochester, the city was once a premier mill town due to its location to the canal. Massive electricity generation from Niagara Falls improved Buffalo's industrial capacity, and the city referred to itself as the "City of Lights" for a time because of its power production. The collapse of the canal and improvements in the energy industry that made Niagara Falls less important led to the mass migration from the city which continues to this day. In the 1970s alone, Buffalo lost more than 100,000 residents, roughly a third of its current population.

5. Dayton, Ohio
Population: 153,843
Population Change 2000-2009: -11,961
Population Percent Change 2000-2009: -7.21%
Home Vacancy: 18.9%
For its size, Dayton, Ohio, was once one of the most productive and creative cities in the U.S. It produced more patents per capita at the turn of the century than any other. The city was home to several former great Fortune 500 companies, including National Cash Register, Mead Paper and Phillips Manufacturing. Through the first half of the 20th century, Dayton had one of the healthiest manufacturing industries. It had more GM autoworkers than any city outside of Michigan during World War II. In the past 50 years, Mead has merged with West Virginia Paper and moved to Richmond, and GM has closed one plant after another in the city.

6. Pittsburgh
Population: 311,647
Population Change 2000-2009: -22,056
Population Percent Change 2000-2009: -6.61%
Home Vacancy: 14.1%
Known as the "Steel City," Pittsburgh was once the forge for the American industrial engine from the late 1800s through the late 1970s. At its peak, the city was home to more than 1,000 factories, including the mills owned by Pittsburgh-based U.S. Steel, which by itself employed over 340,000 workers during World War II. As the American steel industry collapsed in the 1980s, Pittsburgh suffered severe unemployment problems. In the past few decades, the city changed to a technology-based economy, but the population is still on the decline. Since 1950, Pittsburgh's population has declined by more than 50%.

7. Rochester, N.Y.
Population: 207,294
Population Change 2000-2009: -12,180
Population Percent Change 2000-2009: -5.55%
Home Vacancy: 15.3%
Rochester was once a booming trade center largely due to its location at the midpoint between Albany and Buffalo on the Erie Canal. At its peak, the city was the major flour processor in the country, and was home to several key corporations including Xerox and Eastman Kodak. Rochester declined as the usefulness of the canal went out with the advent of railroads and its flagship companies began to lose their relevancy in the larger global economy. Rochester has yet to produce an important replacement industry to drive up the population, and even the success in the 1990's of Xerox has faded. Between 1950 and 2000, Rochester lost 34% of its population.
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أعياد ميلاد ديسمبر